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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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