🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Earned $436,000 from Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the president had been apprehended. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement Platform data shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate. A handful of other traders also earned large payouts from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in the United States, with participants able to predict everything from sports outcomes to current affairs. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."